Political Experts Discuss Potential Moves in Leadership Transition as Singapore Prepares for Change
Following Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s announcement that Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong will take over as the next prime minister ahead of the next general election, political analysts are predicting that a Cabinet reshuffle is imminent. This reshuffle will be crucial for Wong and the fourth-generation (4G) leadership team as they prepare to take over leadership in the coming months.
PM Lee revealed at the People’s Action Party (PAP) convention on November 5 that he would pass the baton to Wong by the party’s 70th anniversary in November 2024. With the election due by November 2025, political observers are speculating that a reshuffle could occur soon, possibly before the end of 2023, to ensure the new team has enough time to establish its leadership and connect with voters.
Zulkifli Baharudin, a political observer and former Nominated Member of Parliament, emphasized that the 4G leadership will need time to gain the confidence of the public and experience in handling challenging constituencies, particularly in high-stakes areas like Marine Parade and West Coast. Singapore Management University law professor Eugene Tan also pointed out that a reshuffle before the end of 2023 would give ministers a year to implement policy changes, particularly in line with the Forward Singapore initiative, a nationwide engagement exercise spearheaded by Wong.
As the handover process unfolds, speculation is growing over when the next general election will be called. Experts agree that 2024 could see an election, either in the first half after the Budget or in the last quarter. However, they note that an election after the 2025 Budget remains a possibility, though it would be the last window for a viable election cycle.
The reshuffle will also raise questions about Wong’s deputy selection. While Health Minister Ong Ye Kung and Education Minister Chan Chun Sing have been considered potential candidates for the deputy role, some analysts also suggest that Singapore may see its first female deputy prime minister in this leadership transition. Other names mentioned include Minister for National Development Desmond Lee, though Wong may also look to maintain continuity by selecting leaders from the current third-generation (3G) leadership.
Political analysts suggest that PM Lee’s careful consideration of Wong’s vision through the Forward Singapore report before the leadership transition highlights the need for Wong to remain connected to the public and gain their trust. This trust will be vital as Wong’s team navigates the challenges ahead, including potential economic and geopolitical issues. As the country looks to the future, the coming Cabinet reshuffle and leadership changes will set the stage for Singapore’s next phase of governance.
