Private-sector economists maintain an optimistic outlook for the recovery of Singapore’s exports in 2024
Singapore’s key exports saw a surprising 20.7% year-on-year decline in March, exacerbated by weaker non-electronics exports, according to data from Enterprise Singapore. This contraction was significantly worse than the expected 7.4% drop and marked a sharp contrast from February’s minor 0.2% fall. The decline was attributed to unfavorable base effects, which further impacted the non-oil domestic exports (NODX) sector.
Despite the surprise dip, economists remain optimistic about the recovery of Singapore’s exports in 2024. According to Barclays economist Brian Tan, excluding volatile components like non-monetary gold and pharmaceuticals, NODX would have seen a more moderate contraction of 1.4%. Maybank economists and other private-sector analysts continue to forecast NODX growth of 7-9% for the year, supported by the ongoing recovery of electronics exports.
Electronics exports, which saw a setback in March, are expected to benefit from the gradual recovery in global semiconductor sales as demand stabilizes after 2023’s inventory digestion. While challenges remain in the first half of 2024, particularly due to tight financial conditions in the U.S. and EU, overall trade performance is expected to improve as the year progresses. Exports to countries such as China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan showed positive growth, which contrasts with declines in markets like the U.S., EU, and Japan.
Economists are still hopeful that Singapore’s export sector will rebound, aided by base effects and improving global conditions.
